Volatility is a downside to bitcoin adoption: the risk of having wealth evaporate before you can spend it is unnerving. But when authors trot this as a definitive rebuttal to digital currency, I get frustrated.
So, for Dr. Jonathan Parker, author of Is bitcoin a viable currency? It's probably too volatile, I have three questions:
1) Why didn't you acknowledge that if valuation is to move through 4 (5?) orders of magnitude, to not expect volatility is absurd? The interesting question is "Are volatility measures trending downward?" (A wonderful example of a testable claim.) Have you done this, chosen a volatility measure and plotted it in time?
2) Why did you not address strategies those who are unhappy with volatility can take to remove risk, e.g. Coinbase?
3) Why did you lack the courage to make a falsifiable claim or prediction, even when preceding your conclusion with "I'm guessing?"
Best,
John @JohnSteill on twitter
Tuesday, May 27, 2014
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
An Oldie: Shiny Pennies.
[ I was horrified to discover I have a blogger site, with a silly title, that I have no recollection of signing up for. I loves the internets, but one of the things I don't like is the lack of decay: dead worthless pages live forever. So I'm putting up older stuff until I get inspired. ]
Preparing to consult the oracle over morning coffee, I notice myself scanning the faces of Others, newspapers elbow-clenched, optimism-flossed face-the-day mode on, and I laugh at my self-consciousness. Hardly remarkable; it's a freak accident when I forget to be self-conscious.
But I can't remember throwing the I-Ching in public before. Forget the obvious irony bringing awkward self-consciousness to eastern voodoo. Too easy. The part of my navel that interested my gaze most this morning was my unwilling to play the fool before these men, these Tennessee men who I don't know that well yet. (I have no problem appearing foolish in front ofTennessee women, however. None. Go figure.)
But its with these men and women I now live, so embrace it. And I'm not defensive about my attachment to the oracle, as a permanently lapsed Catholic its the closest I get to religion and ritual, and as a bonus it has horoscope entertainment possibilities.
Briefly, you toss a number of coins a number of times, and you are then pointed to one of 64 passages of text, which are to be read with slightly different emphasis depending on the exact tosses.
Its just that I don't like the crackpot-moonchild dippiness of the image. The sounds of coins tinkling in my lap, heads turning, and on my face the expression of, what? Reverent contemplation, bemusement, I have no idea. But then I remember being an old man gives me the right to not sweat being uncool.
And besides, Its Knoxville. I think about myself in Knoxville. Ive even read about myself moving to Knoxville, though I wasn't mentioned specifically by name, but I was described: 30 something, single, northerner, suckered into living in an overpriced trendy area, etc etc.
I'll spare you the breathless rave of the enchanted newcomer. But I've lived in enough cities to know this town has an amazing amount of floating talent. And so, I think about myself in Knoxville, reading about my move here, though my name has not yet been mentioned.
And then it becomes clear that I need a coffee refill, and then I get a couple magazines to make a dependable lap-surface, and start fishing for three pennies, the shiniest ones.
But I can't remember throwing the I-Ching in public before. Forget the obvious irony bringing awkward self-consciousness to eastern voodoo. Too easy. The part of my navel that interested my gaze most this morning was my unwilling to play the fool before these men, these Tennessee men who I don't know that well yet. (I have no problem appearing foolish in front ofTennessee women, however. None. Go figure.)
But its with these men and women I now live, so embrace it. And I'm not defensive about my attachment to the oracle, as a permanently lapsed Catholic its the closest I get to religion and ritual, and as a bonus it has horoscope entertainment possibilities.
Briefly, you toss a number of coins a number of times, and you are then pointed to one of 64 passages of text, which are to be read with slightly different emphasis depending on the exact tosses.
Its just that I don't like the crackpot-moonchild dippiness of the image. The sounds of coins tinkling in my lap, heads turning, and on my face the expression of, what? Reverent contemplation, bemusement, I have no idea. But then I remember being an old man gives me the right to not sweat being uncool.
And besides, Its Knoxville. I think about myself in Knoxville. Ive even read about myself moving to Knoxville, though I wasn't mentioned specifically by name, but I was described: 30 something, single, northerner, suckered into living in an overpriced trendy area, etc etc.
I'll spare you the breathless rave of the enchanted newcomer. But I've lived in enough cities to know this town has an amazing amount of floating talent. And so, I think about myself in Knoxville, reading about my move here, though my name has not yet been mentioned.
And then it becomes clear that I need a coffee refill, and then I get a couple magazines to make a dependable lap-surface, and start fishing for three pennies, the shiniest ones.
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